Pregame

Tuesday MLB: Detroit vs. Cleveland

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Keep in mind that you can get the ‘under’ 8 in this matchup between Kyle Lobstein of the Detroit Tigers and Carlos Carrasco of the Cleveland Indians at plus odds at quite a few places, which we feel is nice value here. Carrasco has divided his time as a starter and a reliever, but he has been pitching out of his mind in four starts since re-entering the Cleveland rotation on August 10th, allowing a grand total of two runs with 24 strikeouts vs. three walks in 24.2 innings! The Tigers are still trying to fill the rotation spot of the disabled Anibal Sanchez, and Lobstein earned this second opportunity after allowing only two runs (one earned) on just four hits in six innings in his Major League debut, apparently feeling no butterflies facing the New York Yankees. The ‘under’ is 20-8 in the Indians’ last 28 games as favorites.

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Pick: ‘under’ 8

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Monday MLB: Arizona vs. San Diego

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Without much fanfare, Tyson Ross has been one of the better pitchers in baseball this year while pitching in relative obscurity for the San Diego Padres. Besides pitching for non-contender, his 12-12 record also covers up his 2.64 ERA and 176 strikeouts vs. 64 walks in 181 innings. And while it does not apply here with this game being at home, the fact that Ross has a 3.05 ERA on the road shows that his numbers are legitimate and he has not merely taken advantage of the large dimensions of Petco Park, although that is a nice added benefit. Those dimensions should also help Trevor Cahill of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who after being removed from the starting rotation earlier actually had a 3.43 ERA in seven starts since rejoining it before a rough outing vs. the Dodgers last out. The ‘under’ is 10-1-1 in Ross’s last 12 starts as a home favorite.

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Pick: ‘under’ 6½

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Sunday MLB: Miami vs. Atlanta

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Do not expect much scoring when Nathan Eovaldi and the Miami Marlins visit Alex Wood and the Atlanta Braves. The 23-year-old Wood has a very bright future despite being 9-10 as he has a 3.09 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 130 strikeouts vs. 38 walks in 137 innings, as well as six straight Quality Starts. The southpaw has faced Miami twice in 2014, and while he was roughed up in Miami, he allowed one run on four hits with 11 strikeouts in eight innings here in Atlanta. Eovaldi got off to a nice start but now has a 7.53 ERA his last three outings, leaving him at 6-9 with a 4.30 ERA overall. However, he has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts at Turner Field including three outings not allowing an earned run! The ‘under’ is 5-1-3 in Eovaldi]s last nine starts vs. Braves.

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Pick: ‘under’ 7

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Saturday MLB: Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh

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There could be a pitching duel in a matchup of two NL Central teams fighting for playoff spots when Alfredo Simon and the Cincinnati Reds visit Vance Worley and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Regression was expected from Simon after making his first All-Star Game as he outperformed his sabremetrics the first half of the year, and it came with an eight-start winless streak. However, he snapped that allowing one run on five hits in seven innings while beating Atlanta last out and he has a career 2.88 ERA vs. the Pirates including allowing a total of nine hits over two Quality Starts vs. Pittsburgh this year. Worley comes off of two rough outings, but he still has a 3.14 ERA and 56 strikeouts vs. 14 walks and is facing a Reds’ lineup batting .225 vs. righties the last 10 games. The ‘under’ is 14-5 in the Reds’ last 19 after scoring two runs or less their previous game.

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Pick: ‘under’ 7½

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Friday MLB: Boston vs. Tampa Bay

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This seems like a low total as there is potential for scoring when young Anthony Ranaudo and the Boston Red Sox visit Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays. Ranaudo is 2-0 his first two Major League starts, but he has not been impressive allowing six earned runs on 12 hits in 12 innings with terrible command, as he has five walks vs. just three strikeouts and a disturbing three home runs allowed. Granted Archer is on a roll allowing exactly one earned run each of his last four starts, but he may not need to allow much to push this game ‘over’ if Ranaudo does not improve and the Red Sox are one team Archer has had problems with as he has a 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP while going 0-1 in three starts against them this year. The ‘over’ is 8-3-1 in Archer’s last 12 starts as a home favorite.

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Pick: ‘over’ 7½

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