Pregame

Thursday MLB: Chi. Cubs vs. Milwaukee

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This looks like a deflated total with Jake Arrieta and the Chicago Cubs visiting Jimmy Nelson and the Milwaukee Brewers. Arrieta has a 2.61 ERA and 1.00 WHIP for the season and Nelson has lowered his ERA to 3.97 thanks to a 1.33 ERA his last three starts and he has always had great potential. However, Nelson has been inconsistent and his average of 3.24 walks has led to a 4.09 FIP that does not seem to merit this low total. The Cubs reached Nelson for four earned runs in seven innings the last time he faced them in May. Arrieta is legitimate but his last start was not his best as he allowed three earned runs in six innings in a loss to the Phillies and the Cubs’ bullpen has an ugly 5.19 ERA the last 10 games. The ‘over’ is 21-8 the Brewers’ last 29 home games vs. right-handed starters.

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Pick: ‘over’ 7

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Wednesday MLB: Milwaukee vs. San Francisco

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We cashed a nice ticket with the Milwaukee Brewers here vs. the San Francisco Giants Tuesday, and we are coming right back with them albeit at a smaller underdog price. Mike Fiers may be 5-8 with a 3.96 ERA for Milwaukee but he has pitched better than that with 116 strikeouts in 112 innings while pitching in some bad luck allowing a .319 BABIP. His 1.5 WAR is the best on the Brewers’ staff. The Giants counter with Jake Peavy, who is 2-4 with a 4.86 ERA. He got credit for a Quality Start last outing, but he met just the minimum requirement for getting one allowing three earned runs in six innings vs. Oakland and he threw 100 pitches the first time this year, a concern for someone that recently came off the Disabled List July 3rd. The Giants are 2-7 in Peavy’s last nine starts.

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Pick: Brewers +110

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Tuesday MLB: Milwaukee vs. San Francisco

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The underdogs could have value in a pitching matchup seemingly too close to have a decided favorite when Wily Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers visit Matt Cain and the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have won 13 of 16 games to pull within one-half game of the Dodgers in the NL West, but they have been fortunate with this being their fifth straight series vs. teams with losing records. Cain is not what he used to be and he has not been great in his four comeback starts following elbow surgery, posting a 4.09 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with four home runs allowed in just 22 innings. He seems overvalued vs. Peralta, who is making his first start since suffering an oblique injury but appears ready, allowing two runs and striking out 12 over 11.1 rehab innings. The Giants are 4-12 in Cain’s last 16 starts as a home favorite.

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Pick: Brewers +140

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Monday MLB: Arizona vs. Seattle

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The Seattle Mariners seem overvalued with Mike Montgomery on the bump vs. fellow southpaw Robbie Ray and the Arizona Diamondbacks. In fact, a case can be made that Seattle should not even be favored looking at Montgomery’s last three starts, as he is 0-2 with a 9.22 ERA and 2.12 WHIP with his team going 0-3. His only Quality Start during this time only met the minimum requirement when he allowed three earned runs in six innings vs. the Yankees two starts ago. He was then lit up for eight runs (six earned) in just 2.2 innings by the struggling Tigers last out. Ray meanwhile is having a good year his first season in the National League despite his 3-5 record, as he is sporting an excellent 2.72 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and has 50 strikeouts vs. 15 walks. The Mariners are 7-24 in their last 31 games following a win.

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Pick: Diamondbacks +115

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Sunday MLB: Texas vs. L.A. Angels

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Scoring runs may be difficult when Nick Martinez and the Texas Rangers visit Andrew Heaney and the Los Angeles Angels. Heaney was considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball when he came up with the Marlins last season, but he did not fare well in the majors going 0-3 with a 5.83 ERA in seven appearances. He was traded to the Angels and the 24-year-old has blossomed in his new surroundings, going 4-0 in five starts with a spiffy 1.57 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and a great ratio of 27 strikeouts vs. four walks in 34.1 innings. Granted we are not fans of Martinez and he has begun his regression after a hot start, but he has had success vs. the Angels posting a 2.08 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in six career games (five starts) against them. The ‘under’ is 12-3-1 in the Angels’ last 16 home games.

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Pick: ‘under’ 8

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