Pregame

Wednesday MLB: San Francisco vs. Philadelphia

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There is potential for a low scoring game on ESPN when Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants visit A.J. Burnett and the Philadelphia Phillies. Burnett may be 6-9 with a 4.08 ERA, but he actually had an impressive seven straight Quality Starts before getting hit hard by the Braves in his last start in Atlanta. We like the chances of him bouncing back well at home here vs. a San Francisco offense batting only .239 vs. right-handed pitchers overall this season. As for Bumgarner, he was arguably the best southpaw in the National League for much of this season before hitting a lull that has seen him post one Quality Start in his last five outings. That Quality Start took place last time out at Miami though, and the Phils are batting .237 vs. lefties this year. The ‘under’ is 10-4 in the Phillies’ last 14 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.

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Pick: ‘under’ 7½

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Tuesday MLB: N.Y. Mets vs. Seattle

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Two talented young pitchers throwing in a spacious ballpark could lead to an ‘under’ when Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets visit Erasmo Ramirez and the Seattle Mariners. DeGrom was one of the most highly regarded prospects in the Mets’ system before the year and he has lived up to the billing in 12 Major League starts, posting a 3.18 ERA with 72 strikeouts vs. 28 walks in 73.2 innings. He is facing a Seattle lineup for the first time ever that is batting just .220 vs. righties at home. Ramirez is being recalled from Triple-A, but he showed nice potential while allowing two runs in 20 innings in his last four big league starts before being sent down last month. Pitching at Safeco Field helps as games have averaged only a combined 6.84 runs here. The ‘under’ is 9-2 in the Mariners’ last 11 home games.

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Pick: ‘under’ 7½

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Monday MLB: Cleveland vs. Minnesota

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The Cleveland Indians are hot while the Minnesota Twins are not, but we still do not think that Cleveland’s T.J. House should be a decided favorite on the road. After all, we are talking about a rookie pitcher that is just 1-2 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, and the southpaw is facing a Minnesota lineup batting .299 while averaging a potent 5.06 runs per nine innings vs. left-handers the last 10 games. Fellow southpaw Kris Johnson was not bad in his first start for Minnesota tossing 4.1 scoreless innings vs. the Dodgers before getting roughed up at Colorado in his first ever Coors Field experience. We are willing to forgive that start in the altitude though and he is now facing a Cleveland team batting .235 and averaging 3.55 runs per nine vs. lefties on the road. The Indians are 4-14 in their last 18 road games vs. left-handed starters.

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Pick: Twins +114

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Sunday MLB: Chi. Cubs vs. Arizona

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The Chicago Cubs have one of the worst offenses in baseball batting .237 while averaging 3.89 runs per game, but they have gotten good pitching for most of the year. And no pitcher has probably been a bigger surprise than former Oriole Jake Arrieta, who is 5-1 with a 1.95 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 85 strikeouts in 78.1 innings vs. 22 walks. Add in just two home runs allowed and Arrieta has a 2.14 FIP, 2.72 xFIP and 2.6 WAR, although he has not pitched enough innings to be ranked. The Arizona Diamondbacks counter with Josh Collmenter, who has done his best pitching at home where he is 5-2 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, and he has allowed a total of two runs in 14.1 innings vs. the Cubs in his career with 13 strikeouts. The ‘under’ is 12-5-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 18 games overall.

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Pick: ‘under’ 7½

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Saturday MLB: Colorado vs. Pittsburgh

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Brett Anderson of the Colorado Rockies was well-regarded coming up and had some good years with Oakland, but he has made just four starts for Colorado due to a finger contusion keeping him sidelined for three months, and he was roughed up for five earned runs in five innings by Minnesota in his return. However, Anderson has pitched well in his two starts away from Coors posting a 3.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP and he should improve off of that start. He is facing a Pittsburgh Pirates team averaging just 3.75 runs per game vs. southpaws in 2014 and batting .207 against them the last 10 games. Pittsburgh starter Charlie Morton is better than his 5-9 record as he has a 3.32 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and he is eighth in the majors in groundball rate (54.8 percent). The ‘under’ is 19-8-2 in Morton’s last 29 home starts.

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Pick: ‘under’ 7½

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