This looks like a deflated total with Jake Arrieta and the Chicago Cubs visiting Jimmy Nelson and the Milwaukee Brewers. Arrieta has a 2.61 ERA and 1.00 WHIP for the season and Nelson has lowered his ERA to 3.97 thanks to a 1.33 ERA his last three starts and he has always had great potential. However, Nelson has been inconsistent and his average of 3.24 walks has led to a 4.09 FIP that does not seem to merit this low total. The Cubs reached Nelson for four earned runs in seven innings the last time he faced them in May. Arrieta is legitimate but his last start was not his best as he allowed three earned runs in six innings in a loss to the Phillies and the Cubs’ bullpen has an ugly 5.19 ERA the last 10 games. The ‘over’ is 21-8 the Brewers’ last 29 home games vs. right-handed starters.
Pick: ‘over’ 7