Pregame

Wednesday MLB: N.Y. Yankees vs. Boston

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The last place Boston Red Sox have little else to look forward to this season other than preventing the hated New York Yankees from winning the American League East, and Boston seems to offer good home underdog value here with southpaw Henry Owens facing Masahiro Tanaka. Yes, Tanaka has been steady as usual this year going 10-6 with a 3.62 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 110 strikeouts vs. 24 walks in 121.2 innings. With that said, the Red Sox have given him more trouble than most other teams as he has allowed 14 runs in just 12.2 innings in his last three starts against Boston. More importantly, young Owens is more than capable of matching Tanaka having allowed three runs or less in four of his five starts in the majors including exactly one earned run three times. The Red Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

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Pick: Red Sox +131

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Tuesday MLB: Cleveland vs. Toronto

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We were fortunate to cash an ‘under’ when the Toronto Blue Jays hosted the Cleveland Indians last night, and we will tempt fate by going ‘under’ again with a higher posted total when Marco Estrada faces Cody Anderson. Estrada was a big strikeout guy with the Brewers and the Blue Jays liked him enough to trade for him. Well, he has not disappointed in his first year in Canada and he actually deserves better than his 11-8 record given his 3.19 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. This will be his first start ever vs. Cleveland, which should make him tougher to hit. Anderson has cooled off since a hot start in this, his rookie year, but he remains a pronounced groundball pitcher with a terrific GB/FB ratio of 2.83 and he too is facing Toronto for the first time. The ‘under’ is 13-6 in the Indians’ last 19 road games.

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Pick: ‘under’ 9

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Monday MLB: Cleveland vs. Toronto

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While it may seem dangerous playing an ‘under’ these days in a game involving the piping-hot offense of the Toronto Blue Jays, it does seem like the play when ace David Price opposes Danny Salazar and the Cleveland Indians. Price is 13-4 with a 2.42 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 179 strikeouts vs. 36 walks for the season, and believe it or not he has actually been better in his five starts since coming to the Blue Jays, going 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 41 strikeouts vs. seven walks in 36.1 innings. Salazar meanwhile is 11-7 with a sub-.500 team with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP of his own, and he ranks fifth in the Major Leagues in strikeout rate with 162 in 144.1 innings (10.10 per nine innings) vs. only 41 walks. The ‘under’ is 7-1 in the Indians’ last eight games vs. left-handed starters.

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Pick: ‘under’ 7½

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Sunday MLB: Baltimore vs. Texas

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After the first two games of this series went ‘under’, expect a repeat when Miguel Gonzalez and the Baltimore Orioles visit Derek Holland and the Texas Rangers. Holland is making his fourth start of the year and third since coming back from a four-month absence August 19th. The southpaw pitched well in his comeback allowing two runs in 6.1 innings before “bouncing” in his second start allowing four runs in six innings. He should be able to regain his good form his third start as he has allowed three runs or less his last five appearances vs. Baltimore and is facing an Orioles’ lineup batting .192 vs. lefties the last 10 games. Gonzalez has been inconsistent going 9-10 with a 4.78 ERA, but he is catching a Texas lineup averaging just 3.10 runs vs. righties the last 10 games. The ‘under’ is 10-2-1 in the Rangers’ last 13 games overall.

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Pick: ‘under’ 9½

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Saturday MLB: San Diego vs. Philadelphia

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It may not be obvious, but the ‘under’ could be the play when Colin Rea and the San Diego Padres visit Adam Morgan and the Philadelphia Phillies. The southpaw Morgan was hit hard allowing five runs vs. the Mets last out, leaving him at 4-4 with a 4.43 ERA, but he had allowed three runs or less six of his prior seven starts and is facing a San Diego team that seems to be just going though the motions while playing out the string and that is batting .234 vs. southpaws on the road overall. The Padres also managed a grand total of three runs and five hits the last two games! Rea also comes off of a tough outing in his third Major League start, but had allowed a total of five runs over his first two starts. The ‘under’ is 9-4 in the Padres’ last 13 games vs. left-handed starters.

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Pick: ‘under’ 8½

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